This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing WatchItPlayed’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
WatchItPlayed | training | published before 2020 | 273 | 0 |
WatchItPlayed | validation | published 2020 | 45 | 0 |
WatchItPlayed | test | published after 2020 | 76 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
WatchItPlayed | Asmodee | 15.8% | 2.5% | 6.35 |
WatchItPlayed | Fantasy Flight Games | 5.9% | 1.1% | 5.23 |
WatchItPlayed | GMT Games | 5.9% | 1.3% | 4.60 |
WatchItPlayed | Artist Rodger B Macgowan | 5.9% | 1.8% | 3.28 |
WatchItPlayed | Combinatorial | 4.4% | 1.6% | 2.71 |
WatchItPlayed | 3D Components | 3.7% | 1.4% | 2.54 |
WatchItPlayed | Paper And Pencil | 5.9% | 2.3% | 2.53 |
WatchItPlayed | Deduction Game | 11.0% | 5.0% | 2.19 |
WatchItPlayed | Games Workshop Ltd | 1.5% | 0.7% | 2.07 |
WatchItPlayed | Hand Management | 38.8% | 19.9% | 1.95 |
WatchItPlayed | Party Game | 17.6% | 9.3% | 1.90 |
WatchItPlayed | Role Playing | 2.2% | 2.4% | 0.91 |
WatchItPlayed | Dice Rolling | 24.2% | 28.5% | 0.85 |
WatchItPlayed | Simulation | 5.1% | 10.2% | 0.50 |
WatchItPlayed | Trading | 1.1% | 3.0% | 0.36 |
WatchItPlayed | Pickup And Deliver | 0.4% | 2.7% | 0.13 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.978 | yes |
2 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.929 | no |
3 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.905 | yes |
4 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.890 | no |
5 | 2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.822 | no |
6 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.786 | no |
7 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.772 | no |
8 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.738 | no |
9 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.722 | yes |
10 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.717 | no |
11 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.709 | no |
12 | 2017 | 193728 | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | 0.679 | yes |
13 | 2019 | 220558 | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea | 0.614 | no |
14 | 2019 | 266192 | Wingspan | 0.603 | yes |
15 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.591 | no |
16 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.589 | no |
17 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.587 | no |
18 | 2010 | 62219 | Dominant Species | 0.570 | no |
19 | 2019 | 265736 | Tiny Towns | 0.549 | yes |
20 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.547 | yes |
21 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.539 | no |
22 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.515 | no |
23 | 2014 | 145371 | Three Kingdoms Redux | 0.504 | no |
24 | 2017 | 230059 | Crossfire | 0.498 | no |
25 | 2014 | 163412 | Patchwork | 0.489 | yes |
26 | 2006 | 21882 | Blue Moon City | 0.487 | no |
27 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.482 | no |
28 | 2006 | 22141 | Cleopatra and the Society of Architects | 0.478 | no |
29 | 2016 | 163154 | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | 0.467 | yes |
30 | 2017 | 199904 | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | 0.466 | no |
31 | 2014 | 159508 | AquaSphere | 0.465 | yes |
32 | 2014 | 159675 | Fields of Arle | 0.463 | yes |
33 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.450 | no |
34 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.450 | yes |
35 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.441 | no |
36 | 1982 | 2511 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Thames Murders & Other Cases | 0.440 | no |
37 | 2015 | 183394 | Viticulture Essential Edition | 0.428 | no |
38 | 2018 | 245654 | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | 0.417 | no |
39 | 2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.405 | no |
40 | 2006 | 25417 | BattleLore | 0.399 | no |
41 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.387 | no |
42 | 2018 | 233080 | Book of Dragons | 0.380 | no |
43 | 2005 | 15062 | Shadows over Camelot | 0.372 | no |
44 | 2018 | 256916 | Concordia Venus | 0.368 | no |
45 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.357 | yes |
46 | 2012 | 129622 | Love Letter | 0.356 | no |
47 | 2017 | 197376 | Charterstone | 0.339 | no |
48 | 2016 | 160010 | Conan | 0.334 | no |
49 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.334 | no |
50 | 1999 | 88 | Torres | 0.319 | no |
51 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.317 | yes |
52 | 2016 | 205158 | Codenames: Deep Undercover | 0.312 | no |
53 | 2014 | 157354 | Five Tribes | 0.312 | no |
54 | 2011 | 102548 | Dungeon Fighter | 0.311 | no |
55 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.306 | no |
56 | 2011 | 103343 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) | 0.306 | no |
57 | 2019 | 285984 | Last Bastion | 0.304 | no |
58 | 2013 | 133528 | City of Remnants | 0.302 | no |
59 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.301 | no |
60 | 2017 | 164949 | Time of Crisis: The Roman Empire in Turmoil, 235-284 AD | 0.301 | yes |
61 | 2017 | 209778 | Magic Maze | 0.295 | no |
62 | 2013 | 133848 | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | 0.294 | no |
63 | 2019 | 270673 | Silver & Gold | 0.291 | no |
64 | 2018 | 246297 | Shadows: Amsterdam | 0.290 | no |
65 | 2017 | 234671 | Pandemic: Rising Tide | 0.289 | no |
66 | 2011 | 84419 | Space Empires 4X | 0.284 | no |
67 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.283 | no |
68 | 2009 | 40692 | Small World | 0.283 | yes |
69 | 2017 | 226320 | My Little Scythe | 0.282 | no |
70 | 2017 | 232988 | The Castles of Burgundy: The Dice Game | 0.277 | no |
71 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.276 | no |
72 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.276 | no |
73 | 2016 | 200680 | Agricola (Revised Edition) | 0.274 | no |
74 | 1971 | 594 | Sleuth | 0.273 | no |
75 | 2016 | 193037 | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | 0.271 | no |
76 | 2017 | 180199 | Colonial Twilight: The French-Algerian War, 1954-62 | 0.269 | yes |
77 | 2018 | 240464 | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | 0.268 | no |
78 | 2019 | 283849 | The Only Word: the Party Word Game | 0.268 | no |
79 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.267 | no |
80 | 2019 | 259081 | Machi Koro Legacy | 0.267 | no |
81 | 2014 | 146886 | La Granja | 0.266 | no |
82 | 2018 | 214029 | SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD | 0.264 | no |
83 | 2009 | 54043 | Jaipur | 0.260 | yes |
84 | 2019 | 272453 | KeyForge: Age of Ascension | 0.257 | no |
85 | 2011 | 69552 | Panic Station | 0.257 | no |
86 | 2018 | 245934 | Carpe Diem | 0.254 | no |
87 | 2003 | 8129 | Sluff Off! | 0.254 | no |
88 | 2015 | 161226 | The Builders: Antiquity | 0.252 | no |
89 | 2017 | 232979 | Richard the Lionheart | 0.250 | no |
90 | 2004 | 10630 | Memoir '44 | 0.249 | no |
91 | 2018 | 222219 | Kero | 0.248 | no |
92 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.248 | no |
93 | 2019 | 287607 | The Mind Extreme | 0.244 | no |
94 | 2013 | 144239 | Impulse | 0.244 | no |
95 | 2019 | 220588 | Gandhi: The Decolonization of British India, 1917 – 1947 | 0.240 | yes |
96 | 2017 | 200847 | Secrets | 0.240 | no |
97 | 2016 | 177736 | A Feast for Odin | 0.235 | no |
98 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.234 | no |
99 | 2017 | 224597 | Warhammer Underworlds: Shadespire | 0.234 | no |
100 | 2004 | 9220 | Saboteur | 0.234 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.85 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.70 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think WatchItPlayed is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.929 | no |
2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.890 | no |
2010 | 62227 | Labyrinth: The War on Terror, 2001 – ? | 0.822 | no |
2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.786 | no |
2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.772 | no |
What games does the model think WatchItPlayed is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2019 | 255516 | Brave Little Belgium | 0.003 | yes |
1971 | 2223 | UNO | 0.003 | yes |
2003 | 12171 | Le Passe-Trappe | 0.003 | yes |
2013 | 139747 | Arena Rex | 0.003 | yes |
1960 | 148203 | Dutch Blitz | 0.003 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Space Cadets | Glass Road | Three Kingdoms Redux | Viticulture Essential Edition | Scythe | Gaia Project | Rising Sun | Tapestry |
2 | Android: Netrunner | City of Remnants | Patchwork | Mysterium | Terraforming Mars | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Newton | Aftermath |
3 | Love Letter | Euphoria: Build a Better Dystopia | AquaSphere | 504 | Hit Z Road | Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Ancient Civilizations of the Inner Sea |
4 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Impulse | Fields of Arle | The Builders: Antiquity | Star Wars: Rebellion | Crossfire | Everdell | Wingspan |
5 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Timeline: Music & Cinema | Splendor | The Game | Falling Sky: The Gallic Revolt Against Caesar | Pericles: The Peloponnesian Wars | Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition | Era: Medieval Age |
6 | Terra Mystica | A Distant Plain | Five Tribes | Between Two Cities | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Gloomhaven | Book of Dragons | Tiny Towns |
7 | Andean Abyss | The Hunters: German U-Boats at War, 1939-43 | La Granja | Blood Rage | Conan | Charterstone | Concordia Venus | Last Bastion |
8 | I'm the Boss!: The Card Game | Heads Up!: Party Game | Timeline: Americana | Mombasa | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Shadows: Amsterdam | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
9 | Mafia: Vendetta | Cappuccino | Imperial Settlers | Elysium | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Time of Crisis: The Roman Empire in Turmoil, 235-284 AD | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | Silver & Gold |
10 | Agricola: All Creatures Big and Small | The Builders: Middle Ages | King of New York | Pirates of the 7 Seas | Dead of Winter: The Long Night | Magic Maze | SpaceCorp: 2025-2300AD | The Only Word: the Party Word Game |
11 | Yedo | BANG! The Dice Game | Colt Express | Watson & Holmes | A Feast for Odin | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Carpe Diem | Machi Koro Legacy |
12 | Timeline: General Interest | Concordia | Black Fleet | The King Is Dead | Inis | My Little Scythe | Kero | Maracaibo |
13 | Timeline | La Boca | Deception: Murder in Hong Kong | Runebound (Third Edition) | Citadels | The Castles of Burgundy: The Dice Game | Gen7: A Crossroads Game | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
14 | Libertalia | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Medina (Second Edition) | Star Trek: Five-Year Mission | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Spirit Island | Lords of Hellas | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
15 | The Resistance: Avalon | Crossing | Onirim (Second Edition) | The Voyages of Marco Polo | Great Western Trail | Colonial Twilight: The French-Algerian War, 1954-62 | Fort Sumter: The Secession Crisis, 1860-61 | The Mind Extreme |
16 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | Cardline: Globetrotter | Nations: The Dice Game | My Village | Encore! | Richard the Lionheart | Warhammer Underworlds: Nightvault | Gandhi: The Decolonization of British India, 1917 – 1947 |
17 | Kemet | Legacy: The Testament of Duke de Crecy | Pandemic: The Cure | Timeline: Québec | Cottage Garden | Secrets | Hitler's Reich: WW2 in Europe | Unmatched Game System |
18 | Mice and Mystics | Navajo Wars | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | T.I.M.E Stories | 75 Gnom' Street | Warhammer Underworlds: Shadespire | Brikks | Mental Blocks |
19 | 1989: Dawn of Freedom | Viticulture | La Isla | Timeline: Star Wars | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | LYNGK | Between Two Castles of Mad King Ludwig | Caylus 1303 |
20 | Cardline: Animals | Room 25 | Camel Up | Triumph & Tragedy: European Balance of Power 1936-1945 | Codenames: Pictures | SpyNet | Timeline: Science Museum | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume One |
21 | Zombicide | Rococo | Emperor's New Clothes | Mission: Red Planet (Second Edition) | Aeon's End | 878 Vikings: Invasions of England | Loser | The Magnificent |
22 | Divinare | Cuba Libre | Fire in the Lake | Unusual Suspects | The Castles of Burgundy: The Card Game | Twin It! | Timeline: Classic | Pandemic: Rapid Response |
23 | The Hobbit Card Game | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Praetor | Cardline: Animals 2 | Liberty or Death: The American Insurrection | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | Herbaceous Sprouts |
24 | Coup | BioShock Infinite: The Siege of Columbia | Linko! | Timeline Challenge | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | Choose Your Own Adventure: House of Danger | Sierra West |
25 | Noah | Warhammer: Diskwars | Timeline: Sports et Loisirs | Codenames | When I Dream | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Railroad Ink: Blazing Red Edition | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
WatchItPlayed | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.719 |
WatchItPlayed | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.685 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 312804 | Pendulum | 0.481 | no |
2020 | 253506 | Versailles 1919 | 0.407 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.372 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.371 | yes |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.370 | yes |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.361 | no |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.334 | no |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.296 | no |
2020 | 296626 | Sonora | 0.243 | no |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.238 | yes |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.236 | yes |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.232 | yes |
2020 | 189664 | The Hunted: Twilight of the U-Boats, 1943-45 | 0.225 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.225 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.216 | no |
2020 | 319966 | The King Is Dead: Second Edition | 0.210 | yes |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.191 | yes |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.171 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.165 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.164 | no |
2020 | 255456 | Beneath the Med: Regia Marina at Sea 1940-1943 | 0.158 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.155 | no |
2020 | 303672 | Trek 12: Himalaya | 0.150 | no |
2020 | 316377 | 7 Wonders (Second Edition) | 0.148 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.147 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.139 | yes |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.137 | no |
2020 | 274841 | Cóatl | 0.129 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.127 | yes |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.125 | no |
2020 | 296512 | The Game: Quick & Easy | 0.124 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.123 | no |
2020 | 229782 | Roland Wright: The Dice Game | 0.118 | no |
2020 | 318183 | Prehistories | 0.117 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.114 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.113 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.113 | no |
2020 | 319794 | Timeline: Chile | 0.112 | no |
2020 | 298371 | Wild Space | 0.111 | no |
2020 | 282081 | The Zorro Dice Game | 0.107 | no |
2020 | 316412 | The LOOP | 0.100 | no |
2020 | 281075 | Welcome to New Las Vegas | 0.099 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.096 | yes |
2020 | 252153 | Tang Garden | 0.094 | no |
2020 | 301607 | KeyForge: Mass Mutation | 0.092 | no |
2020 | 265784 | Cleopatra and the Society of Architects: Deluxe Edition | 0.091 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.091 | no |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.090 | yes |
2020 | 297030 | Tekhenu: Obelisk of the Sun | 0.088 | no |
2020 | 300877 | New York Zoo | 0.081 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.724 | no |
2 | 2023 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.585 | no |
3 | 2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.543 | no |
4 | 2021 | 342073 | Berried Treasure | 0.534 | no |
5 | 2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.502 | no |
6 | 2022 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.390 | yes |
7 | 2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.376 | no |
8 | 2022 | 326934 | Unmatched: Hell's Kitchen | 0.355 | yes |
9 | 2021 | 329465 | Red Rising | 0.348 | no |
10 | 2022 | 326933 | Unmatched: Redemption Row | 0.344 | yes |
11 | 2021 | 305682 | Rolling Realms | 0.338 | yes |
12 | 2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.332 | yes |
13 | 2022 | 356033 | Libertalia: Winds of Galecrest | 0.316 | yes |
14 | 2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.309 | no |
15 | 2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.300 | yes |
16 | 2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.272 | no |
17 | 2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.257 | no |
18 | 2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.252 | no |
19 | 2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.247 | no |
20 | 2022 | 284778 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – Dr. Sattler vs. T. Rex | 0.244 | yes |
21 | 2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.240 | no |
22 | 2022 | 341945 | La Granja: Deluxe Master Set | 0.237 | no |
23 | 2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.215 | no |
24 | 2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.215 | yes |
25 | 2022 | 315610 | Massive Darkness 2: Hellscape | 0.214 | no |
26 | 2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.212 | no |
27 | 2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.202 | no |
28 | 2021 | 295947 | Cascadia | 0.183 | yes |
29 | 2021 | 332944 | Sobek: 2 Players | 0.180 | no |
30 | 2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.177 | no |
31 | 2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.174 | no |
32 | 2021 | 344258 | That Time You Killed Me | 0.173 | no |
33 | 2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.170 | no |
34 | 2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.169 | no |
35 | 2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.169 | no |
36 | 2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.169 | no |
37 | 2021 | 333553 | For the King (and Me) | 0.167 | no |
38 | 2021 | 262941 | Dominant Species: Marine | 0.163 | yes |
39 | 2021 | 296577 | Red Flag Over Paris | 0.162 | yes |
40 | 2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.161 | no |
41 | 2021 | 339790 | Cocktail | 0.161 | no |
42 | 2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.146 | no |
43 | 2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.146 | no |
44 | 2022 | 352263 | Through Ice and Snow | 0.143 | no |
45 | 2021 | 340677 | Bad Company | 0.136 | no |
46 | 2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.129 | no |
47 | 2021 | 336382 | Marvel United: X-Men | 0.129 | no |
48 | 2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.127 | yes |
49 | 2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.126 | no |
50 | 2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.123 | no |
51 | 2021 | 283242 | The Whatnot Cabinet | 0.121 | no |
52 | 2021 | 286751 | Zombicide: 2nd Edition | 0.117 | yes |
53 | 2021 | 345435 | Fireball Island: Race to Adventure | 0.116 | no |
54 | 2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.115 | yes |
55 | 2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.115 | no |
56 | 2021 | 281248 | Cape May | 0.113 | no |
57 | 2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.111 | no |
58 | 2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.109 | no |
59 | 2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.109 | no |
60 | 2021 | 337397 | Warhammer Underworlds: Two-Player Starter Set | 0.107 | no |
61 | 2022 | 350316 | Wayfarers of the South Tigris | 0.106 | no |
62 | 2022 | 266064 | Trudvang Legends | 0.105 | no |
63 | 2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.105 | no |
64 | 2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.103 | no |
65 | 2021 | 307862 | Dollars to Donuts | 0.102 | no |
66 | 2022 | 353470 | Star Wars: Jabba's Palace – A Love Letter Game | 0.101 | no |
67 | 2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.101 | no |
68 | 2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.100 | no |
69 | 2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.100 | yes |
70 | 2021 | 300523 | Biblios: Quill and Parchment | 0.100 | no |
71 | 2022 | 320718 | Hidden Leaders | 0.100 | no |
72 | 2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.099 | no |
73 | 2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.098 | no |
74 | 2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.096 | no |
75 | 2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.096 | no |
76 | 2022 | 338460 | The Isle of Cats: Explore & Draw | 0.094 | no |
77 | 2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.090 | no |
78 | 2021 | 283387 | Rocketmen | 0.090 | no |
79 | 2022 | 344268 | The Mother Road: Route 66 | 0.089 | no |
80 | 2021 | 326804 | Rorschach | 0.087 | no |
81 | 2022 | 347703 | First Rat | 0.087 | no |
82 | 2022 | 322656 | burncycle | 0.087 | no |
83 | 2021 | 332800 | Summoner Wars (Second Edition) | 0.086 | yes |
84 | 2022 | 240980 | Blood on the Clocktower | 0.085 | no |
85 | 2021 | 320446 | Corduba 27 a.C. | 0.085 | no |
86 | 2022 | 334065 | Verdant | 0.085 | no |
87 | 2021 | 333539 | The Siege of Runedar | 0.083 | no |
88 | 2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.083 | no |
89 | 2022 | 354254 | Voices In My Head | 0.082 | no |
90 | 2021 | 318322 | Hidden Strike: American Revolution | 0.081 | no |
91 | 2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.081 | no |
92 | 2021 | 316080 | KeyForge: Dark Tidings | 0.080 | no |
93 | 2021 | 335541 | We Care: a Grizzled Game | 0.080 | no |
94 | 2021 | 292375 | The Great Wall | 0.080 | no |
95 | 2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.079 | yes |
96 | 2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.079 | no |
97 | 2021 | 251747 | Atlantic Chase | 0.079 | no |
98 | 2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.078 | no |
99 | 2021 | 340455 | King of the Valley | 0.078 | no |
100 | 2022 | 295374 | Long Shot: The Dice Game | 0.077 | no |